Super Tuesday it may be but beneath the hype, do you understand the process?

The US may be the world's super power and Australia's greatest ally, but most of us are stumped by its complex electoral system.

On Dateline, George Negus will interview Arnie Arnesen, a well-known political commentator in the US who has her own TV and radio shows ('Political Chowder' on WZMY TV and "Chowder in the Morning' on radio WCCM 110am) and who can very simply and in an entertaining way explain the system.



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Transcript:

Well, if you have been in a bit of a state getting your head around the incredibly confusing mess of primaries and caucuses that will eventually throw up two candidates for US president in November, you are not alone. George Negus has a sneaky suspicion only about 90%-plus of the media are in the same boat. Hopefully, Dateline’s next guest can help. Arnie Arnesen's a genuine voice in the US media where she hosts both television and radio programs. She's also been on the other side of the fence, as a Democrat in the state house. Arnie's well known for speaking her mind. George Negus spoke with her a short while ago from Manchester in New Hampshire.

GEORGE NEGUS: Arnie, you've had a busy day and a busy evening, so I'd like you to take it easy on me as an ignorant Australian from down-under. To be perfectly frank, we're not absolutely sure that we know what's going on in your country at the moment.

ARNIE ARNESEN, POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well quess what, join the club.

GEORGE NEGUS: But if you were punting now, what would you say the situation is now? Is John McCain going to be the front-runner for the Republicans as a result of today, and what about Hillary?

ARNIE ARNESEN: I think the story coming out of tonight is that Mitt Romney lost. That's a definite, OK, so we can start with what we definitely know. John McCain looks like the winner, but of course Mike Huckabee had some significant wins that I think even surprised John McCain. But McCain can smile, pretty much, walking out of Super Tuesday. On the Democratic side, the big story is the story of California. What we've seen with Hillary Clinton is that whether it's the exit polls or the polling going into Super Tuesday, Hillary outperforms the exit polls over and over again. Barack Obama did very well, no question about it, but Hillary Clinton has to be smiling tonight. Of course what you have to remember is Hillary Clinton thought a year ago that tonight it would be all over and she would be the nominee and just be preparing for November. So, if nothing else, the conversation continues.

GEORGE NEGUS: OK. So what happens now? Tell us, Hillary if she wins today, the so-called Super Duper Tuesday, John McCain looks like he will be in front for the Republicans, so what? is the next question. Where do they go to from here, because there are a whole bunch of states where there haven't been primaries and caucuses?

ARNIE ARNESEN: Well there are a whole bunch of states, and some of the first states that are coming out after Super Tuesday will be places where Barack Obama will do very, very well. But what we have seen happen now is that Hillary Clinton has a real advantage. When you look at the Democratic side of the aisle, you see an overwhelming turnout of women. Hillary Clinton wins that gender card over and over again. You also see that when it comes to the Hispanic vote versus the black vote, she really is also doing very well with the Hispanic vote. A great story I heard just as I was coming into the studio tonight was that for example in Massachusetts, where Hillary Clinton cleaned Barack Obama's clock despite the fact that Barack had the endorsement of the Governor, Deval Patrick, of Senator Kennedy, of Senator Kerry, it turns out that black voters weren't even a blip on the screen in Massachusetts. And what we're really seeing is Hillary Clinton is delivering among low-income voters, among women, and among Hispanics. It sounds like a strategy to potentially win a Democratic nomination.

GEORGE NEGUS: Yeah, but what does it actually mean, Arnie? Does it mean that she can now be confident that A, she is going to be the Democratic candidate ahead of Barack Obama, and B, if she is, that she can knock over John McCain?

ARNIE ARNESEN: Well, Super Duper Tuesday is very significant, but it's not over yet. One of the problems for Hillary Clinton is that Barack Obama seems to continue to build something of a surge. He is clearly winning the money conversation. Just in the last month, Hillary Clinton raised, what, $10 million or $13 million. Barack Obama raised $32 million. I mean, that's nothing to sneeze at, he could still turn this around. Nothing is settled yet. But California must make the Clintons sleep a lot more comfortably tonight.

GEORGE NEGUS: Right. Again, don't use any big words, for my benefit. What this means is that they'll now go off to their national conventions. McCain, he looks to be pretty right, pretty safe. Hillary and Obama still with states to have primaries and caucuses in. People will then turn up later in the year at the Democratic and Republican conventions, and is there any guarantee that they were necessarily vote for Hillary or Obama because they voted for them in their state? Is this thing now binding on the states because of the way they voted today?

ARNIE ARNESEN: No, no, no. On the Democratic side, this is life, nothing is binding. I mean, everybody wants a brokered convention. It's exciting, the media loves it, it sounds like it might in fact happen. I still doubt that is what's going to happen, even for the Democratic Party. Frankly, it's ironic, the Republicans are begging for a brokered convention because the base of the Republican Party and the talk-show hosts on the Republican side so dislike John McCain. But John McCain has done something that I think everyone has to admire. He came out of the ashes like a phoenix, he rebuilt his campaign, he re-established his leadership. Now he just has to figure out who his nominee is going to be for vice-president. On the Democratic side, it looks like it might still be a big question, but I suspect that given what happened in California, Hillary Clinton probably will have it wrapped up by the time the convention shows up.

GEORGE NEGUS: Is something as crazy as a dream ticket even possible, even likely, or is that just cloud-cuckoo land to think Hillary and Obama might stop bashing each other and start bashing the Republicans, which we stupidly thought this was all about?

ARNIE ARNESEN: To be honest with you, I know a lot of Democrats that would love this. They were so upset after New Hampshire. It turned into a war between gender and race. And they didn't want that to happen. Instead of it being a celebration of who these two people were, it turned out to be a point of division. I think what the Democrats really want to do is not only send a message to the country, but frankly send a message to the world that things are going to be incredibly different and that what Hillary Clinton sends to the world is a message of the past with Bill Clinton, who has such a well established relationship on the world stage. What they send with Barack Obama is again a symbol of, "Oh, my God. If the United States can embrace a Clinton and an Obama, clearly we are going to change our relationship both in the Middle East as well as with the rest of the world." And I think those two together send a powerful, powerful signal.

GEORGE NEGUS: Let me put you out on a limb again Arnie. Does it matter whether it's Hillary or Obama? Either of them as Democratic nominees could beat John McCain. Is that the case? Is that what you're saying?

ARNIE ARNESEN: Um, I don't know. I think John McCain is very interesting because if you look at the independent voters across the country, independent voters are going to be very important in the general election, and what you see is the independent voters are torn between John McCain and Barack Obama. What they're not torn about is between John McCain and Hillary Clinton. If Hillary Clinton is there, what you see is independents tend to side with John McCain. Here is the problem for John McCain, what we have seen over and over again is a lack of enthusiasm with the base of the Republican Party in the way of turnout. When you looked at Iowa, when you looked at New Hampshire, when you looked at Nevada, and frankly probably when you look at Super Tuesday and do the final math, there's a lot of excitement on the Democratic side of the aisle, and on the Republican side of the aisle they kind of want to knit one pearl two. So I think the advantage, although it's less of an advantage for Hillary Clinton, is just the passion and excitement about sending whatever Republican back home.

GEORGE NEGUS: So John McCain has still got to convince his own lot?

ARNIE ARNESEN: John McCain is the only Republican that I think gives Democrats pause. They could have handled Huckabee, they could have handled Mitt Romney, they could handle anyone. John McCain is unique, and that's part of the reason why the Republican base is so depressed with him, because what you see with John McCain is he doesn't walk lockstep with anyone. That makes him both a maverick and that's what makes him so appealing to independents and frightening for Democrats.

GEORGE NEGUS: Arnie, thanks very much for talking to us, and we'll do it again.

ARNIE ARNESEN: Very well, George. Thanks so much.

Credits

Producer/Researcher:
JANE WORTHINGTON

Editor:
STEPHEN HARROP