NABIL SHA’ATH, PALESTINIAN FOREIGN MINISTER: I must have at least spent 55 years, or 50 years, let's put it this way, 50 years of my life in that cause.

GEORGE NEGUS: How precarious is the current situation?

NABIL SHA’ATH: It's not as bad as it was in the last five years and I think there is a potential opening, but the risk is that of reversion, regression, back to violence. The risk is still there.
I think there is an opening and I think the elections will determine how big is that opening.
If we win, if Fatah wins the elections and a centre left coalition in Israel wins, I think good sailing.

GEORGE NEGUS: What if Ariel Sharon, for instance, dies or doesn't recover, and it looks like he will not. What will be the impact of that, and what will be the impact if Hamas does as well as people say they're going to do? And what will be the impact if Kadima, the new centre in Israel, doesn't win power in a couple of months' time?

NABIL SHA’ATH: I'll admit that Mr Sharon was a tough, courageous guy, in many ways, particularly in dealing with his own people and with his own party. And it takes a lot of courage sometimes, to defy your own people to do what you think is right for your country. But I don't think he ever had a real peace plan for the Palestinians.
So I don't think the passing away of Sharon will mean disaster in that area. On the contrary. I think if Mr Sharon is succeeded by people who are more inclined to develop a peace process that works for the long run, he may have planted the right seed. I think he knew, he sniffed in the air the changes in the Israeli politics and therefore he was there with the centrist party destroying his own creation of a right wing party, because that's what he felt the Israeli public was moving into.

GEORGE NEGUS: Talking about sniffing the air, has Hamas sniffed the air? Because in Palestine, the case would be in the occupied territories, that if Hamas gains the kind of authority and influence that they could, the whole thing could come unstuck.

NABIL SHA’ATH: I think if Hamas would win it would be very difficult and costly for the Palestinian people, not because Hamas is not going to change. I think Hamas is going to change.

GEORGE NEGUS: In what way? For the better?

NABIL SHA’ATH: Hamas will move in the footsteps that Fatah took 35 years ago, and Hamas is moving towards international legitimacy and recognition. Hamas is moving towards a real stop to violence.

GEORGE NEGUS: Recognition of Israel?

NABIL SHA’ATH: It will, but it might take 10 years to do so. We can't afford the time.

GEORGE NEGUS: How do you explain the rising support in the occupied territories? Doesn't that indicate a failure of people in the past, including Yasser Arafat?

NABIL SHA’ATH: You have to recognise how much the Israelis have done in the five years fighting the intifada. How costly their attack on the Palestinians was, and therefore how much bitterness they created.
Therefore, if Hamas wins any popular support it's from that part of the Palestinian people that suffered most the confrontation with Israel during the intifada. They are not supporting their ideological Islamic doctrinaire program. They are simply either supporting them as a protest to the established party that have run the Government, Fatah, for such a long time and its inevitable mistakes during years of ruling, or supporting their grievances that have resulted from Israeli actions during the last five years.

GEORGE NEGUS: Not because maybe they got tired of the approach of people like yourself?

NABIL SHA’ATH: I know it's not so. Public opinion polls in the Palestinian territories have uncovered a great majority of Palestinians for the peace process. What they get, at most, is 35%. Now 35% is a significant minority and for a party that never ran in the elections, even 1% is a great rate of growth. So 35% is what Hamas gets at most, and that is a third of the Palestinians. Two thirds of the Palestinians want peace to come now, yesterday.

GEORGE NEGUS: But isn't that because that third are dissatisfied with the way Fatah has gone about things. The worlds that keep being used - cronyism, corruption, incompetence, division, inability to deal with the security issue. How much of the blame can be rested at the feet of Fatah and people like yourself?

NABIL SHA’ATH: There are some problems that Fatah faced as a result, as a direct result of occupation, such as lawlessness. You beat it by better security force, by better economic condition, by creating job opportunities and a political hope, usually helped by the United Nations or by NATO or some other force.
In our case, Israel will not allow the equipping of a police force. Israel will not allow a third party to come in with forces such as NATO or the United Nations. The siege around Gaza is still on. Economic difficulties still abound and there is no clear political hope.

GEORGE NEGUS: Shimon Peres, and man that you've dealt with a lot over the years, he has said that "the Israelis will not negotiate with men who come to the table with guns". If Hamas become part of the Palestinian governing body won't they be going to the table? And are they prepared to give up their guns?

NABIL SHA’ATH: They will not come into Government with us unless they give up their guns.

GEORGE NEGUS: That's a firm demand that you would make?

NABIL SHA’ATH: Oh yes. If they win the elections, that's a different matter. We will be the Opposition hoping that we get an opportunity in the future, or they may even change, I don't know.

GEORGE NEGUS: Do you really think they can? Can that particular leopard change its spots?

NABIL SHA’ATH: People that fought wars before can eventually decide to put down their guns and negotiate. This is what we have done, this is what the Israelis have done.

GEORGE NEGUS: So this part of the world is looking at two extremely important elections. The Palestinian elections and if Hamas win, disaster, as you describe it. What will happen in two months' time if Kadima did not gain a sentencing in Israel and a right wing Government led by Binyamin Netanyahu?

NABIL SHA’ATH: Greater catastrophe. Much greater catastrophe. Because here the catastrophe comes with a very modern equipped army and lethal means of warfare and therefore, a return to power of the extreme right with Mr Netanyahu to us is a worse catastrophe than Hamas making it in the elections.

GEORGE NEGUS: What will break the nexus then? What's the key?

NABIL SHA’ATH: The key really can be one of two. Either that the Israeli people and the Palestinian people, through their elective processes bring about Governments that both believe that the solution is about ending Israeli occupation to those parts of Palestine - about 20% of it - which was occupied in 1967. And to resolve all outstanding issues so that there be two independent and secure states side by side.
The Palestinians as the Israelis accept to end all violence and to end all insecurity to their neighbours, and moving in a neighbourly fashion to build their economies, or else for an international party to force the two to accept that. So far...

GEORGE NEGUS: Why do you think that hasn't happened so far?

NABIL SHA’ATH: Because the Israelis have a very special role in American politics and in the past, also, in western politics - England and France in particular. Now, Europe has changed but that special relationship that ties Israel to the US makes it impossible for the US to really deploy international troops in defiance of what the Israelis really want. The Israelis will not accept international troops because they're afraid they will create a new status quo which ends their occupation.

GEORGE NEGUS: These two elections that we're talking about, are they the last best hope for the region? For both the Palestinians and the Israelis?

NABIL SHA’ATH: I think that these two elections were preceded by serious changes that took place in the two societies, and I think the question is, will these very people who want peace translate that into electing a representative who can take the program forward? I think that's the question.

GEORGE NEGUS: In the number of years that you hope you have left, do you think you'll see that. Do you think you'll see that goal?

NABIL SHA’ATH: I'm sure, I'm absolutely sure that my generation will see it. I might drop dead tomorrow, but I think my generation will see it.

GEORGE NEGUS: Nice to talk to you and I hope you don't drop dead so you can see it.

NABIL SHA’ATH: Thank you.