LORETTA NAPOLEONI, AUTHOR AND TERRORISM ANALYST: I think that possibly what we can say is that the world is less secure today than it was before 9/11. Since 9/11, the incidence of terrorist attacks around the world has increased exponentially. So I think on balance I would say the Bush policy, the so-called war on terror, has been extremely unsuccessful.

GEORGE NEGUS: So would you say then that the reaction by the American Administration, by George Bush and co to September 11 was the wrong reaction?

LORETTA NAPOLEONI: Yes, it was absolutely the wrong reaction. The first mistake was to declare a so-called war on terror. That gave terrorists - particularly we're talking about Osama bin Laden and al-Qa'ida - the status of soldiers, while, until 9/11, Western governments and non-Western governments had treated terrorists not as a threat to national security but actually as a form of crime, and there was a very big mistake because he gave al-Qa'ida the status that of course al-Qa'ida wanted to have, of soldiers, so it legitimised in their eyes of their supporters and sympathisers their fight against the West.

GEORGE NEGUS: Malcolm, how do you react? Is George Bush deluding himself if he thinks the war on terror is succeeding?

MALCOLM NANCE, COUNTER-TERRORISM SPECIALIST: I don't know if he's deluding himself. There is no denying the empirical data related to the increase in terrorism since the war on terrorism started. But we've got to look at two components - what is a war on terrorism, and what is the aftermath of other operations that the US Government has had? The war on terror itself, the start of operations against the al-Qa'ida organisation was absolutely right. This is exactly where we should have gone. I don't like the phrase "the war on terrorism" I would call it the war on al-Qa'ida. And it's not a question of al-Qa'ida becoming footsoldiers or not. In their mind, they are soldiers and they are carrying out strategic operations with enormous impact. Therefore, a military and diplomatic and tactical approach to eliminating them as an organisation was absolute critical. However, it's everything that followed on after that. Al-Qa'ida could have been eliminated as an organisation very early on.

GEORGE NEGUS: In fact, to quote you to yourself, you regard it as a total disaster - the war on terror, you said. "Bush should have declared war on al-Qa'ida," which you've said, "then we would have made short work of it."

MALCOLM NANCE: Yes, and when I say declare war, I mean war with a capital W. I don't mean to say we are going into a small military conflict and it's going to run for several years. I meant harnessing the entire resource of America.

GEORGE NEGUS: But that would have never have been just between America and al-Qa'ida. That would have dragged - surely - the rest of the world into the conflict as well.

MALCOLM NANCE: Only as our allies, and that's the way we should have done it. We should have used the global goodwill we had after September 11. It should have been a global war in eliminating several - just a couple of thousand individuals in their organisation at that time.

GEORGE NEGUS: Loretta, how do you react to that?

LORETTA NAPOLEONI: I think he's actually right that we could have wiped out al-Qa'ida. Al-Qa'ida before 9/11 was a very tiny organisation. We knew Osama bin Laden existed of course because he had carried out attacks against the US embassies, for example, in Africa. We knew there was a sort of trans-national terrorist organisation called al-Qa'ida but we didn't know how big al-Qa'ida was and in reality, it was a small organisation and we could have wiped it out if we had finished the job in Afghanistan but we didn't.

GEORGE NEGUS: Is it true that you believe there were at least a couple of occasions when Osama bin Laden could have been taken out, but he wasn't?

LORETTA NAPOLEONI: Yes, of course. There were occasions. There were occasions also in which the United States was in a position to get him from various governments, and we're talking about Sudan but also we're talking about Afghanistan. I mean, that Taliban did make an offer to extradite Osama bin Laden to Pakistan, where he would have stood trial for 9/11. And the reason why that proposal was turned down is because America wanted to get into a conflict and wanted to get Osama bin Laden into a conflict.

MALCOLM NANCE: I'm sorry. I'm going to have to interrupt you on that point because is absolutely no evidence to that effect. The United States Government at that time does not want to get into a conflict. I worked this mission since 1993 and I will tell you as a matter of fact by 1996 Osama bin Laden was our end-all be-all. That is all we were doing.

GEORGE NEGUS: There's no suggestion that America was running dead?

MALCOLM NANCE: No, we were out to get that man. Head, platter, that's how we were looking at Osama bin Laden.

GEORGE NEGUS: If that's the case, if they were hell-bent - as distinct from what Loretta's saying - on getting Osama bin Laden, why could the most technologically sophisticated nation on earth, particularly militarily, particularly where intelligence and security are concerned, not get him?

MALCOLM NANCE: Well, I mean, let's look at some other historical parallels. No-one saw the Japanese kamikaze come in World War II until they started crashing into ships. 19 committed men, silent operation, all clean operatives coming into the United States using very clean covers, as Saudi students, which is very common in the United States, carrying out an operation of strategic significance - sorry, historical significance.

GEORGE NEGUS: Loretta, why would America run slow? Why would they not want to get him?

LORETTA NAPOLEONI: I personally disagree with Malcolm about the fact United States wanted to get him because they had several opportunities. The Clinton administration could have made a deal with the Taliban, considering the Taliban did go to the States twice in order to have discussions to be recognised as a government, and we knew Osama bin Laden was there and we knew that Osama bin Laden had done the bombings of the US embassies in Africa, so there were opportunities if he really was number one enemy of America before 9/11.

GEORGE NEGUS: Malcolm?

MALCOLM NANCE: I won't say that that may have appeared that way on the surface but believe me we had thousands of people mobilised whose sole function in this world was to bring Osama bin Laden to justice well before his declaration of war in 1996.

GEORGE NEGUS: Including people like yourself?

MALCOLM NANCE: Yes, we knew about projects and other operations that were carried out that time. But on a political level you may not have seen it but the current under the water there was full activity - al-Qa'ida dead.

GEORGE NEGUS: Silly question maybe. Silly question, Loretta, but I have to ask this because a lot of people wonder about this. Is the man Osama bin Laden - public enemy number one probably still in the world - alive or dead, do you think?

LORETTA NAPOLEONI: Of course he's alive. We have seen a video a couple of months ago of Osama bin Laden, so he is alive. I think what is more important is not so much if Osama bin Laden or al-Zawahiri are still alive is what 9/11 - the war on terror that followed 9/11 has created. This individual and this trans-national small organisation al-Qa'ida have become an ideology and we are responsible very much for that because we gave too much importance and we did not act accordingly when we had to act so today we really should talk about al-Qa'idaism, which is the new anti-imperialist ideology - an umbrella under which we see home-grown groups, as the people who carried out the attack in London.

GEORGE NEGUS: No centralised control but a state of mind and ideology, as you see it. I wonder what Malcolm thinks of that.

MALCOLM NANCE: I think she's absolutely right. Al-Qa'idaism or bin Ladenism or whatever you want to call it has now usurped Wahhabism or Qutubism as most people see it. But this has always been part of their strategic doctrine. From the first meetings of the minutes of Osama bin Laden's organisation in 1988, they have said we want this to be a self-sustaining, self-spontaneously growing jihad.

GEORGE NEGUS: But is it an ideology, as Loretta said?

MALCOLM NANCE: It was always intended to be an ideology.

GEORGE NEGUS: Go ahead Loretta.

LORETTA NAPOLEONI: I disagree. In 1988 Osama bin Laden was still in Afghanistan fighting the anti-Soviet jihad on the side of the Americans - let's not forget. The shift in Osama bin Laden's strategies - the moment in which Osama bin Laden started to look at America as an enemy, as a faraway enemy, the one that maintains in power the near enemy - the corrupted oligarchic regimes of the Arab world - took place after the Gulf war.

GEORGE NEGUS: Let me interrupt you there. We're running out of time to some extent. You were a sniper, or are a sniper?

MALCOLM NANCE: I'm trained as a sniper.

GEORGE NEGUS: You've trained as a sniper and you've said, "I can only kill a man. I cannot kill an ideology."

MALCOLM NANCE: Absolutely.

GEORGE NEGUS: Are you saying it's impossible therefore in the present circumstances is if we accept that al—Qa'ida is an ideology these days that it's a no-win situation?

MALCOLM NANCE: No, it's not that it's a no-win situation. It's just that military operations have only so much reach, so to speak. That's the hard power of the US. Applying that hard power with precision is what we should be doing around the world and what we did start out doing for some period of time but we also have to use the soft power of the United States - diplomacy and changing this ideology.

GEORGE NEGUS: Loretta, hard power - is that going to work? Or, as Malcolm says, a combination of hard power and soft power? How long is that going to take?

LORETTA NAPOLEONI: I think we can kill an ideology. Of course we can. But we can not kill an ideology bombing people, innocent people. We can not kill an ideology invading countries and being perceived as occupier of countries, as in the case in Iraq, for example. The way forward is actually to back the moderate forces. The majority of the Muslims in the world, not only in the West but also in the East, are moderates. These people want to have a good life, they want to have jobs, they want to have a family, they want just to enjoy life. And this what we have to do. I personally suggest a sort of economic Marshall Plan in order to improve economic life in these countries. For a start, stop supporting the oligarchic corrupt regimes which do rule most of the Muslim world.

GEORGE NEGUS: Loretta Napoleoni, thank you for your time. Malcolm Nance, thanks for your time as well.


Producer / Researcher
CATHY CAREY

Editor
PETER TODD