MIDDLE EAST

The Arab Divide

Wednesday, 5 February, 2003
REPORTER: Alan Hall


Saddam Hussein's never been one to take a backward step. Last night, in an interview with former British Labour minister Tony Benn, he came out strongly against those in the West who seek his downfall.

SADDAM HUSSEIN (Translation): Those people and others have been telling the various US administrations, especially the current one, that if you want to control the world you need to control the oil. Therefore the destruction of Iraq is a prerequisite to controlling oil. Iraq has no weapons of mass destruction whatsoever.

TONY BENN, FORMER BRITISH LABOUR LEADER: Do you have links with al-Qa'ida?

SADDAM HUSSEIN: We have no relationship with al-Qa'ida.

The interview took place on a backdrop of mounting unease throughout the Middle East at the prospect of war. In Beirut, the message was unmistakable. In Yemen, tens of thousands protested in the capital of Sana'a. In Bahrain, public feeling against the war was universal.

DEMONSTRATOR: We are against the war, against the Iraqi, our brothers. We have to stop the war. Today we demonstrate against the United States, against the aggression.

YAHA MAHMASSANI, ARAB LEAGUE AMBASSADOR: A war on Iraq would have serious and disastrous consequences in the region.

Talking to Dateline from New York, Yahya Mahmassani has his finger on the pulse of Arab feeling. As Ambassador to the United Nations for the League of Arab States, he represents the interests of 22 Arabic countries at the UN in New York.

YAHYA MAHMASSANI: Any war in Iraq will inflame the Arab people even further and will not only inflame the Arab people but it will also inflame the Muslim people. Why target Iraq? The whole thing is why target Iraq? Where is the imminent danger. Iraq is contained. Again it poses no danger neither to Australia nor the United States nor to peace and security. This war again should not take place.

Mindful of such an outcome, Arab ministers have been in diplomatic overdrive recently. Just over a week ago, the foreign ministers of Iraq's six neighbours met in Istanbul seeking a common position on the crisis confronting the region. Egypt's Foreign Minister, Ahmed Maher, wasn't optimistic about turning around President Bush's enthusiasm for war.

AHMED MAHER, EGYPTIAN FOREIGN MINISTER: If he wants to attack Iraq, who can prevent him? I don't think we can prevent him. All we can do is to raise our voice and say please to everybody that peace is so important.

When the Arab states met in Istanbul, they were united in their opposition to the war. YAHYA MAHMASSANI: There is absolutely no justification to wage any war on Iraq. The inspectors are there, they are doing a very good job. They have been functioning, now they are in high gear and there is no reason to attack Iraq.

But behind the public position, it seems there is far less unity.

PROFESSOR AMIN SAIKAL, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY: I don't think they have a united position. For example, Kuwait has already made its entire territory available for the Americans and so has the small emirate of Qatar, where the allied command centre is being placed and also Jordan, which has already indicated that if there is going to be a war, it would like to see this war to be short and swift and as painless as possible, but nonetheless it would be prepared to wear it.

While the street protests continue, Arab leaders are walking a political tightrope, balancing how to keep the lid on popular outrage, while at the same time not losing American largesse. Egypt alone receives over $750 million annually from Washington in economic aid. The Egyptian army regularly cooperates in joint exercises with American troops and receives a total of $1.3 billion a year in US military aid.

PROFESSOR AMIN SAIKAL: Mubarak's regime is more or less a semi-authoritarian regime which needs the support of the United States if it wants to survive any domestic challenge or, for that matter, regional challenges.

Jordan has its hand out for almost $75 million a year in US military aid and receives a further US$150 million in economic aid.

PROFESSOR AMIN SAIKAL: Most of the Arab countries are ruled by authoritarian regimes and many of these regimes have been dependent on the United States for their protection.

But, according to the Arab League, this is not about money, it's about stopping an invasion.

YAHYA MAHMASSANI: Because the Arab countries that do receive, and they are numerous, they are countries that take military aid. This has nothing to do with an act of aggression against Iraq. Receiving military aid is something but accepting the invasion of a brother country is another thing. The principle is as follows: the Arab Heads of State have all agreed unanimously. They took a resolution refusing to accept – rejecting to accept a war on Iraq and this is the final decision by the Arab heads of state at the highest level. This has nothing to do with whatever agreement or whatever military assistance is received by the Arab countries.

As the American military build-up in cooperative Gulf States like Qatar intensifies, so too does the tension in the Arabic countries of the region. A tension that could explode into open domestic violence if war starts.

YAHYA MAHMASSANI: If the war takes place there will be a reaction from the Arab people, there will be a violent reaction. The interests of those countries that attack Iraq will be threatened and nobody knows where this war will lead to. People will not be silent. It’s already you know, people are fed up with one war that's taking place in our region. Israel occupies our territories, persecutes the Palestinians and also, by the way, Israel has weapons of mass destruction. Why doesn't somebody go into Israel and find the nuclear, biological and biological weapons. There are stockpiles. They are in the Negev. Why doesn't anybody talk about Israel's weapons of mass destruction? Why concentrate on Iraq.

And there's a final warning from the Arab League. Australia won't be shielded from Arab hostility if war begins.

YAHYA MAHMASSANI: Don't forget that the Arab people will not be silent. The whole Arab world will be engulfed with hostility - anti-American, anti-Australian - if you go to war. After all why should Australia shed its blood on the region? Why should Australian soldiers come and kill the Iraqis. Is there a reason for this? Again, I say, this war is unjustified, rejected and not acceptable by any standard, by any means.