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Analysts say markets stuck between fear and panic
Saturday, 11 October, 2008
A German trader reacts to the market slide. (AAP)
Emerging from the wreckage of an historically bad week of trading, dealers from Tokyo to London and New York say the financial turmoil has left markets in an irrational state of fear.
Some dealers buried their faces in their hands, unable to watch as index indicators steadily fell Friday morning in scenes that were replayed around the world as each market opened.
Tokyo's Nikkei index crashed 24.33 percent over the week for its worst five days of trading in its 50 years of existence. The Dow Jones fell eight straight days, for its worst week. London had its worst trading week since the 1987 crash.
Never again
"I have never seen anything like this and I hope I never go through anything like this again," said Valerie Plagnol, director of strategy for Credit-Mutuel-CIC in Paris, commenting on the clash of the stock fall and the credit freeze.
"It's been a long week in the history of the financial markets," said Joshua Raymond a strategist for City Index in London. "What is happening now is not just history repeating. If you map out every single event along the way, we are setting a whole new precedent."
A 700 billion dollar US bailout, an 800 billion dollar British package, coordinated interest rate cut by seven central banks -- nothing seems to work. Investors have been massively scared off.
"The markets have shown that it is naive to assume that the UK banking bailout and rate cuts this week would turn the market instantaneously; confidence takes months to build and hours to shatter," added Raymond.
"It's blood bath," said Hiten Agarwal of Bombay brokers Angel Broking.
Overwhelming situation
The damage extended to commodities markets -- just as it is quickly spreading through the whole economy. "Markets are very much trading on fear, which has overwhelmed fundamentals," said Nimit Khamar at Sucden traders in London, talking about the oil market where prices have now fallen below 80 dollars a barrel.
Swiss bank Wegelin the intervention of governments and central banks had the opposite effect. "Uncertainty and panic have been increased."
"People just don't have the confidence to put their money back into the market yet," said James Foulsham, head of trading at CMC Markets in Sydney. "We are going to need some stability first before we start seeing retail and even institutional clients come back in."
So what now?
Nearly all dealers insist that the end of the crisis will only come with the end of the freeze on credit lending. And right now, said Matt Buckland, a trader with CMC Markets, that is not in sight, despite the massive efforts of central banks.
Source: AAP
Some dealers buried their faces in their hands, unable to watch as index indicators steadily fell Friday morning in scenes that were replayed around the world as each market opened.
Tokyo's Nikkei index crashed 24.33 percent over the week for its worst five days of trading in its 50 years of existence. The Dow Jones fell eight straight days, for its worst week. London had its worst trading week since the 1987 crash.
Never again
"I have never seen anything like this and I hope I never go through anything like this again," said Valerie Plagnol, director of strategy for Credit-Mutuel-CIC in Paris, commenting on the clash of the stock fall and the credit freeze.
"It's been a long week in the history of the financial markets," said Joshua Raymond a strategist for City Index in London. "What is happening now is not just history repeating. If you map out every single event along the way, we are setting a whole new precedent."
A 700 billion dollar US bailout, an 800 billion dollar British package, coordinated interest rate cut by seven central banks -- nothing seems to work. Investors have been massively scared off.
"The markets have shown that it is naive to assume that the UK banking bailout and rate cuts this week would turn the market instantaneously; confidence takes months to build and hours to shatter," added Raymond.
"It's blood bath," said Hiten Agarwal of Bombay brokers Angel Broking.
Overwhelming situation
The damage extended to commodities markets -- just as it is quickly spreading through the whole economy. "Markets are very much trading on fear, which has overwhelmed fundamentals," said Nimit Khamar at Sucden traders in London, talking about the oil market where prices have now fallen below 80 dollars a barrel.
Swiss bank Wegelin the intervention of governments and central banks had the opposite effect. "Uncertainty and panic have been increased."
"People just don't have the confidence to put their money back into the market yet," said James Foulsham, head of trading at CMC Markets in Sydney. "We are going to need some stability first before we start seeing retail and even institutional clients come back in."
So what now?
Nearly all dealers insist that the end of the crisis will only come with the end of the freeze on credit lending. And right now, said Matt Buckland, a trader with CMC Markets, that is not in sight, despite the massive efforts of central banks.
Source: AAP
