A majority of Americans believe that Democratic candidate Barack Obama will win the presidential election against Republican hopeful John McCain in November, the latest Fox News poll shows.

While 51 per cent pf those questioned said Mr Obama, who is vying to become the first African-American president, will win the election, only 27 per cent are betting on a McCain victory.

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Voters registered as Democrats are more confident about their candidate's chances than their Republican peers: 71 per cent of Democrats see Mr Obama winning on November 4 while 51 per cent of Republicans believe Mr McCain will win.

One in four Republicans think Mr Obama, a senator from Illinois, will succeed US President George W. Bush.

A month ago, 47 per cent of Americans believed that Mr Obama, 46, would win the election compared to 32 per cent for Mr McCain, a 71-year-old Arizona senator.

Even though many Americans are predicting an Obama victory, the race remains tight. In a head-to-head matchup, Mr Obama leads Mr McCain 41 to 40 per cent among registered voters, the poll showed.

Running mate questions

If Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and independent hopeful Ralph Nader are added, Mr Obama leads Mr McCain by 40 to 37 per cent.

If Mr Obama chooses former Democratic nomination rival Hillary Clinton as his running mate and Mr McCain picks former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, a former Republican candidate, the Democratic ticket leads 48 to 39 per cent.

The survey was conducted between July 22-23 among 900 voters. The margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.

A separate poll by the Pew Research Center found that two-thirds of Hispanic voters support Mr Obama for the White House, while less than one quarter back Mr McCain.

The findings marked a positive turn for Mr Obama's fortunes with Latinos: he lost the Hispanic vote in the Democratic primaries to Ms Clinton by nearly two-to-one, Pew pointed out.

"The presumptive Democratic nominee's strong showing in this survey represents a sharp reversal in his fortunes from the primaries," Pew said.

That led to speculation that "Hispanics were disinclined to vote for a black candidate," the Washington-based think tank said.

The poll, which showed 23 per cent of Latinos support Mr McCain, was conducted nationwide among 2,015 Latinos by the Pew Hispanic Center from June 9 to July 13.

Battleground states

A separate survey by Quinnipiac University Polling Institute showed Mr McCain had whittled away at Mr Obama's lead in the key battleground states of Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, and overtaken Mr Obama in voter support in Colorado.

"It's been a good month for McCain. His movement in these key states, not large except for Minnesota, jibes with the tightening we are seeing in the national polls," Peter Brown, assistant director of the polling institute, said in a statement.

"The good news for McCain is that he has improved his standing in Colorado and Michigan, two states that are critical to each man's strategy," Mr Brown added.

Mr McCain led Mr Obama by 46 per cent to 44 per cent in Colorado, the survey conducted last week of some 1,400 people in the mountainous state showed. The margin of error was 2.6 per cent.

In June, Mr Obama led Mr McCain by 49 per cent to 44 per cent in Colorado, traditionally a Republican state.

In Michigan, Mr Obama also saw a couple of percentage points shaved off his voter-support tally, which fell from 48 per cent in June to 46 per cent this month.

Mr McCain held steady at 42 per cent. The margin of error in that state's poll was 2.4 per cent.

And in Minnesota, Mr McCain surged ahead -- from 37 per cent in June to 44 per cent -- while Mr Obama fell back from 54 per cent to 46 per cent, Quinnipiac said. Minnesota's margin of error was 2.8 per cent.


Source: AFP/SBS